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JOURNALS // Journal of the Belarusian State University. Mathematics and Informatics // Archive

Journal of the Belarusian State University. Mathematics and Informatics, 2024 Volume 2, Pages 27–39 (Mi bgumi684)

Theory of probability and Mathematical statistics

Mathematical models of ponzi schemes that consider the stochastic nature of decision-making

A. V. Kovalenkoa, M. H. Urtenova, A. V. Ovsyannikovab, G. A. Kesiyana, Z. M. Laipanovac

a Kuban State University, 149 Stavropolskaja Street, Krasnodar 350040, Russia
b Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, 49/2 Leningradskij Avenue, Moscow 125167, Russia
c Karachay-Cherkessian State University named after U. D. Aliev, 29 Lenina Street, Karachaevsk 369202, Russia

Abstract: In this paper, we further develop well-known approaches to modelling the functioning of Ponzi schemes and generalise them using stochastic differential equations in the Ito form. The applied models take into account the dependence of the scheme’s existence time on the accrued interest rate and the growth of the number of clients, as well as different variants of the advertising campaign. The obtained formulas and results of the corresponding experiments are given.

Keywords: mathematical modelling; financial pyramid; Ponzi scheme; stochastic differential equations; Ito processes; numerical Runge – Kutta scheme

UDC: 51-77:336.6

Received: 02.05.2024
Revised: 12.06.2024
Accepted: 12.06.2024



© Steklov Math. Inst. of RAS, 2025