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JOURNALS // Chelyabinskiy Fiziko-Matematicheskiy Zhurnal // Archive

Chelyab. Fiz.-Mat. Zh., 2021 Volume 6, Issue 4, Pages 512–528 (Mi chfmj265)

This article is cited in 1 paper

Informatics, Computer Science and Control

Yield crop simulation for options pricing

M. M. Dyshaeva, N. E. Ratanova, V. P. Dergilevb, A. A. Lazarevc

a Chelyabinsk State University, Chelyabinsk, Russia
b South Ural Research Institute of Horticulture and Potato Growing, Chelyabinsk, Russia
c LLC "Agrator", Chelyabinsk, Russia

Abstract: Mathematical models of yield and options pricing for crop yield have been developed. For this purpose, a one-factor Vasicek equilibrium model was used, describing the evolution of the instant interest rate and the price of a discount zero coupon bond. Based on the options pricing model for discount zero coupon bonds, a model of options pricing on crop yields is obtained. The price of a European call option is based on current weather conditions in the region and takes into account the operations (and their timeliness) that the farmer has performed to increase crop yields.

Keywords: crop yield forecasting, digital twins, Vasicek model, crop yield options pricing.

UDC: 51-77+336.763.31+338.43

Received: 29.09.2021
Revised: 03.11.2021

DOI: 10.47475/2500-0101-2021-16411



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© Steklov Math. Inst. of RAS, 2024