S. A. Solovyov, J. Rose, I. V. Dzyublyk, E. P. Trokhimenko, “Predictive models of efficacy and public health impact of vaccination with rotavirus vaccine in Ukraine”, Computer Research and Modeling, 2012, Volume 4, Issue 2,Pages <nobr>407

ANALYSIS AND MODELING OF COMPLEX LIVING SYSTEMS

Predictive models of efficacy and public health impact of vaccination with rotavirus vaccine in Ukraine

S. A. Solovyov^a, J. Rose^b, I. V. Dzyublyk^a, E. P. Trokhimenko^a

^a The National Medical Academy of Postgraduate Education named after P. L. Shupyk, Dept. of virology, Dorogozhytska st., 9, Kyiv, 04112, Ukraine
^b Case Western Reserve University, Dept. of Family Medicine, Div. of Research, Cleveland, Ohio 44106, USA

Abstract: There were presented the results of the computational and theoretical studies related to assessing of an efficacy and public health impact of a vaccination with a rotavirus vaccine in Ukraine. The required indicators are: the genotype-specific vaccine efficacy, number of the severe illness preventions, hospitalizations, outpatient visits and deaths. The results were obtained in a form of tree of decisions based on Makrov model by using mathematical model with computer simulation. The results showed the significant positive effect of the vaccination compared to no vaccination, in case of high level of vaccine coverage in Ukraine.

Keywords: rotavirus, rotavirus vaccine, vaccination, decision tree, Markov model.

UDC: 616.988:578.823.91-085.371-035-037:614.47(477)

Received: 21.12.2011
Revised: 02.04.2012

Language: English

DOI: 10.20537/2076-7633-2012-4-2-407-421