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JOURNALS // Diskretnaya Matematika // Archive

Diskr. Mat., 2025 Volume 37, Issue 2, Pages 3–13 (Mi dm1869)

The ruin problem for a simple random walk defined on a Markov chain

G. A. Bakai

Steklov Mathematical Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow

Abstract: Let random variables $X_0,X_1, X_2,\dots$ be connected in a homogeneous Markov chain and take the values $1$ and $-1$. Let $S_0=0$, $S_n = S_{n-1}+X_n$ for $ n\in\mathbb{N}$ and $\tau_{AB} =\min\{k\in\mathbb{N}\colon S_k = A \text{ or } S_k = -B\}$ for $A,B\in\mathbb{N}$. The formulas for the ruin probability ${\mathbf P}(S_{\tau_{AB}}=A)$ and the generating function ${\mathbf E}( z^{\tau_{AB}}\mid S_{\tau_{AB}}=A)$ were known earlier. The paper presents their new proof, based on martingale theory and Doob's halting theorem.

Keywords: Markov chains, ruin problem, martingales

UDC: 519.217.2

Received: 23.02.2025

DOI: 10.4213/dm1869



© Steklov Math. Inst. of RAS, 2025