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JOURNALS // Informatika i Ee Primeneniya [Informatics and its Applications] // Archive

Inform. Primen., 2018 Volume 12, Issue 4, Pages 16–24 (Mi ia558)

This article is cited in 4 papers

Determining the extremes of precipitation volumes based on the modified “Peaks over Threshold” method

A. K. Gorsheninab, V. Yu. Korolevab

a Institute of Informatics Problems, Federal Research Center “Computer Science and Control” of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 44-2 Vavilov Str., Moscow 119333, Russian Federation
b Faculty of Computational Mathematics and Cybernetics, M. V. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Leninskie Gory, Moscow 119991, GSP-1, Russian Federation

Abstract: The problem of correct determination of extreme observations is very important when studying meteorological phenomena. The paper proposes ascending and descending methods for finding the threshold for extremes based on the Rényi theorem for thinning flows and the Pikands–Balkema–De Haan results. Using the observation data for 60 years for Potsdam and Elista, it is demonstrated that the ascending method can present excellent results for daily precipitation but for volumes of wet periods, the descending method should be used. The results of such nonparametric approaches are compared with the parametric criterion proposed in the previous papers by the authors.

Keywords: precipitation, wet periods, extreme values, thresholds, Rènyi theorem, Pickands–Balkema–de Haan theorem, testing statistical hypotheses, data analysis.

Received: 15.10.2018

DOI: 10.14357/19922264180403



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