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JOURNALS // Informatika i Ee Primeneniya [Informatics and its Applications] // Archive

Inform. Primen., 2023 Volume 17, Issue 1, Pages 73–82 (Mi ia832)

On the problem of assessing and analyzing traffic accidents risk on the rail transport

A. V. Bosovab, A. N. Ignatova

a Moscow State Aviation Institute (National Research University), 4 Volokolamskoe Shosse, Moscow 125933, Russian Federation
b Federal Research Center “Computer Science and Control” of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 44-2 Vavilov Str., Moscow 119333, Russian Federation

Abstract: The problem of assessing and analyzing traffic accidents risk on the rail transport is considered. Two functions of the integral risk are proposed that allow assessing danger of transportation along the entire route of a transport. The probability of an unfavorable event occurring during transportation and the expected damage are chosen as such functions. The concept of assessing probability and damage from unfavorable events during the freight trains transportation is proposed. A meaningful example of calculating integral risk functions is given on the basis of previously investigated statistics on the freight trains transportation and unfavorable events that occurred with them.

Keywords: risk, unfavorable event, rail transport, probability, expected damage.

Received: 24.10.2022

DOI: 10.14357/19922264230110



© Steklov Math. Inst. of RAS, 2024