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JOURNALS // Preprints of the Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics // Archive

Keldysh Institute preprints, 2021 102, 30 pp. (Mi ipmp3019)

Multi-regional model of global dynamics

S. A. Makhov


Abstract: A dynamic macro model of world dynamics has been developed. In the model, the world is divided into 19 regions. The internal development of the regions is described by differential type equations for demographic and economic indicators. Interregional interactions represent the trade flows from region to region and are described by the trade submodel. Calculations show that the model satisfactorily approximates the dynamics of monotonic indicators. The forecast of regional development and global dynamics up to 2040 is constructed.

Keywords: world dynamics, mathematical modeling, macroeconomics, foreign trade, time series, regression analysis, forecast.

DOI: 10.20948/prepr-2021-102



© Steklov Math. Inst. of RAS, 2024