Modelling and forecasting the effectiveness of the educational process at universities

The system of higher education is dynamically developing every year, which leads to natural competition of universities with each other. One of the components of university activity evaluation is the assessment of the quality of education provided. High indicators, getting into authoritative ratings, directly depend on the number of graduates and the quality of their professionalism. The work will review the mathematical model of improving the efficiency of the educational process in the implementation of elective disciplines on the example of real data. In the course of the study, the probability of students graduating from university is determined, and a comparative analysis of the application of machine learning models in the forecasting process is carried out. The article also presents the results of numerical simulations obtained using the Python programming language and additional data analysis libraries.