The dynamical cause-effect links' presentation in human-machine systems

A method of presentation variable cause-effect links for modeling processes in dynamic systems is proposed. Such a representation corresponds to the changing conditions that are associated with the action of many diverse factors that accompany the functioning of complex human-machine systems. The presence or absence of a causal relationship between the individual events in the proposed model is defined as a result of a set of stochastic or deterministic functions. Trends in the representation of cause-effect links are achieved by formation of these relations on the basis of common values of variables that correspond to various events in the system. The existing software systems for the analysis of security of technological systems are rather limited in view of dynamics of cause-effect models. The representation under discussion is actual for modeling critical combinations of events leading to beyond design basis accidents. Dynamic cause-effect models make possible to determine time intervals when the system is most vulnerable to the emergence of critical combinations of events, to analyze the causes and ways to prevent such combinations. The proposed model is implemented in developed software that will be used for modeling and analysis of malfunctions in the functioning of man-machine, organizational and other dynamic systems with the help of using event trees.