RUS  ENG
Full version
JOURNALS // Informatsionnye Tekhnologii i Vychslitel'nye Sistemy // Archive

Informatsionnye Tekhnologii i Vychslitel'nye Sistemy, 2011 Issue 1, Pages 24–34 (Mi itvs37)

CONTROL AND DECISION MAKING

Universality of algorithms predicting strong events in complex systems

A. B. Shapoval, M. G. Shnirman

International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics RAS

Abstract: In spite of hypothesis claiming non-predictability of models with self-organized criticality (SOC), this paper for the first time gives evidence that strong events in a SOC-model of earthquake occurrence (of the Manna type) are predictable with certain efficiency. Some quiescence underlies the prediction. The error diagram exhibits prediction efficiency.

Keywords: self-organized criticality, prediction, error diagram.



© Steklov Math. Inst. of RAS, 2024