Abstract:
Based on the precursor applied for prediction of strong earthquakes the paper constructs the algorithm forecasting when extreme events occur in sand-pile models. These seismic models, due to permanent loading of stress and rare instantaneous stress release exhibiting scale invariance, explain self-organized criticality of seismic process on a model level. The constructed algorithm is shown to be equally effective for activation and anti-activation scenarios of large model events. Modified type I and type II errors are applied as a measure of efficiency.
Keywords:prediction algorithm, sand-pile, scenario of large events.