Using geo-simulation modeling to predict changes in Arctic lake areas

The article is devoted to the important problem of developing information technology for modeling the spatio-temporal dynamics of fields of thermokarst lakes as intense sources of methane emissions into the atmosphere of Arctic territories. A geo-simulation model of a field of thermokarst lakes in the form of a set of random circles is considered, the properties of which were determined from experimental data from satellite measurements of lake areas in the permafrost zone of Western Siberia. Using satellite data recently obtained for lakes in different Arctic territories for the period 1985–2022, an experimental substantiation of the applicability of the model throughout the Russian Arctic is given. A quantitative determination of the model parameter, which is a function of time and climatic parameters – average annual temperature and precipitation level – was carried out in different Arctic territories of Russia. The issues of generating sequences of pseudo-random numbers used to model the spatiotemporal dynamics of Arctic lake fields taking into account climate change are considered. Using computer experiments with a geo-simulation model of the dynamics of fields of thermokarst lakes, forecasts of changes in the size of lakes in different Arctic regions for the next decade were obtained.