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JOURNALS // Matematicheskoe modelirovanie // Archive

Mat. Model., 2008 Volume 20, Number 9, Pages 23–33 (Mi mm2680)

This article is cited in 11 papers

Sample distribution function construction for non-stationary time-series forecasting

Yu. N. Orlova, K. P. Osmininb

a M. V. Keldysh Institute for Applied Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences
b M. V. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Mechanics and Mathematics

Abstract: The method of statistical analysis and forecasting of non-stationary time-series is proposed on the basis of quasi-stationary criterion of sample distribution function and evolution equation with weighted average velocity. This method is applied to predict the time-series values outside of quasi-stationary limits. The concrete prognosis model is constructed for the case of cyclic time-series. The accuracy of forecast is analyzed for various discrete models of Liouville equation.

Received: 28.09.2007



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