Stochastic model of forecast flood situation on mountain-plain river

The article presents integrated linear stochastic model of water stock's rippling on catchment area. This model takes into incidental noise in observed values of stock $W(t)$, water's flow $q(t)$ on catchment area, size of precipitation $R(t)$ and evaporation $E(t)$ from surface, and makes to get a forecast of stated quantities possible. There are some examples of practical application of the model.