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JOURNALS // Matematicheskoe modelirovanie // Archive

Matem. Mod., 2018 Volume 30, Number 3, Pages 67–82 (Mi mm3949)

Modeling of age structure and mobility of researchers staff

A. P. Zubareva, A. K. Skuratova, K. Reimerb, I. N. Chernovaa

a Federal State Institution "Directorate of scientific and technical programs", Russia
b University of Cologne, Germany

Abstract: We show how the demographic situation in the country, international migration, and dismissals affect the age structure of scientific personnel applying methods of mathematical modeling. We perform numerical experiments on the proposed mathematical model for Russian and German circumstances. Our model offers solutions for the age structure and mobility of scientists. Further, we conduct a comparative analysis of model solutions to data of demographic developments. Finally, we forecast changes in the structure, the average age, and the number of researchers in Russia up to 2031.

Keywords: scientific personnel, age structure, migration, mathematical modeling, optimization, numerical simulation, demographic projection.

Received: 02.02.2017



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© Steklov Math. Inst. of RAS, 2024