The generalized model of choice behaviour and its application to ethno-political conflicts

The mathematical model of social community behaviour when it is necessary to make a choice is constructed and studied. The main concept of the model is a concept of socio-political potential of typical person, making choice on the basis of social psychology laws. From mathematical point of view the model is a system of nonlinear ODE, describing various regimes of social community selfidentification with time. Examples of using of this model for analysis and prognosis of ethno-political situation in Dagestan are demonstrated.