RUS  ENG
Full version
JOURNALS // Matematicheskoe modelirovanie // Archive

Mat. Model., 2020 Volume 32, Number 11, Pages 47–58 (Mi mm4232)

This article is cited in 8 papers

Experimental studies of seasonal weather predictability based on the INM RAS climate model

V. V. Vorobyevaab, E. M. Volodinc

a Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (National Research University)
b Moscow Center for Fundamental and Applied Mathematics at INM RAS
c Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics of RAS

Abstract: The technology for constructing a set of initial data using the methodology for eliminating the displacement of the model bias for conducting seasonal time-scale experiments with the climate model of Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INM) RAS originally developed for long-term experiments is presented. The comparative analysis of multiyear mean correlation coefficients of anomalies for the winter seasons of various weather fields and regions with similar results of the SLAV model was carried out. The presence of an increase in the correlation coefficients of anomalies in the years of the phenomena of El Niño and La Niña was revealed. The coincidence of the phases of quasi-biennial oscillations is shown. The model sea-level pressure, precipitation and surface temperature anomalies are compared with reanalysis anomalies. Similarity is shown.

Keywords: model, climate, weather, seasonal forecasting, anomaly correlation coefficient, atmosphere, ocean, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO).

Received: 17.04.2020
Revised: 17.04.2020
Accepted: 21.06.2020

DOI: 10.20948/mm-2020-11-04


 English version:
Mathematical Models and Computer Simulations, 2021, 13:4, 571–578


© Steklov Math. Inst. of RAS, 2025