RUS  ENG
Full version
JOURNALS // Matematicheskoe modelirovanie // Archive

Matem. Mod., 2023 Volume 35, Number 1, Pages 51–58 (Mi mm4433)

Structural break detection in autoregressional conditional heteroskedasticity model: case of Student distribution

D. A. Borzykhab, A. A. Yazykovab

a Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology
b National Research University Higher School of Economics (NRU HSE)

Abstract: We consider two methods of structural break detection in a piecewise generalized model of autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity. The first method is based on Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistics and is called KS-method. The second one is based on the cumulative sums and is called KL-method. In this paper, we compare the KS- and KL-methods under the assumption of Student conditional distribution of random errors. The results of our Monte Carlo experiments were as follows: the KL-method lost to the KS-method both in terms of the average probability of first type error and in terms of the average power structural break detection.

Keywords: GARCH-t, t-distribution, Student distribution, volatility, change points, structural breaks, structural shifts, ICSS, CUSUM.

Received: 17.10.2022
Revised: 09.11.2022
Accepted: 14.11.2022

DOI: 10.20948/mm-2023-01-04


 English version:
Mathematical Models and Computer Simulations, 2023, 15:4, 654–659

Bibliographic databases:


© Steklov Math. Inst. of RAS, 2024