RUS  ENG
Full version
JOURNALS // Trudy Moskovskogo Matematicheskogo Obshchestva // Archive

Tr. Mosk. Mat. Obs., 2022 Volume 83, Issue 1, Pages 63–75 (Mi mmo667)

Mathematical model of the spread of a pandemic like COVID-19

A. G. Sergeeva, A. Kh. Khachatryanb, Kh. A. Khachatryancd

a Steklov Mathematical Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow
b National Agrarian University of Armenia
c Yerevan State University
d Institute of Mathematics, National Academy of Sciences of Armenia, Yerevan

Abstract: Using the example of the infectious disease called COVID-19, a mathematical model of the spread of a pandemic is considered. The virus that causes this disease emerged at the end of 2019 and spread to most countries around the world over the next year. A mathematical model of the emerging pandemic, called the SEIR-model (from the English words susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered), is described by a system of four ordinary dynamical equations given in §1.
The indicated system is reduced to a nonlinear integral equation of Hammerstein–Volterra type with an operator that does not have the property of monotonicity. In §3, we prove a theorem on the existence and uniqueness of a non-negative, bounded and summable solution of this system.
Based on real data on the COVID-19 disease in France and Italy, given in §2, numerical calculations are performed showing the absence of a second wave for the obtained solution.

UDC: 517.968.4+534.7

MSC: 45G05, 92D30

Received: 08.02.2021


 English version:
DOI: 10.1090/mosc/334


© Steklov Math. Inst. of RAS, 2025