Target survival probability estimation for the attackers–target–defenders problem

The attackers–target–defenders problem is formulated and formalized as a positional antagonistic game with incomplete information. A method of target survival probability estimation with known estimates of the dynamic capabilities of attackers is proposed. Recurrence expressions for its calculation are obtained. Corresponding numerical target survival probability estimations with optimal behavior of the players are made. Defenders in the game are assigned three different roles: the role of a false goal, the role of a goal accompanying, and the role of an intercepting attacker. Survival probability considered as function of the attackers–target–defenders problem parameters is analyzed. The obtained probability estimations could be used as heuristic estimations of quality for corresponding dynamic system. Obtained optimal strategies could be considered as heuristics for the corresponding attackers–target–defender differential game. Optimal strategies contain orders for players indicating their current role. Using the Python language, a software module was developed that allows to calculate the survival probability of a target based on known task parameters.