A study of contest success function for battles (combats, operations)

A statistical study of contest success functions for battles was performed, based on the model of G. Tullock, which establishes the dependence of battle (combat, operation) victory probability on the ratio of combat potentials of the sides. The combat potential is determined by the number of combat units of the sides and takes into account their moral and technological characteristics. The scale parameter (according to G. Tullock, the decisiveness parameter) is estimated by using the examples of battles that took part in the 19th and early 20th century, the results of strategic operations of the Great Patriotic War of 1941–1945, the data on clashes between border guards and bandit groups, and also on the base of international statistical data on acts of piracy and armed robbery at sea. For counter-terrorism and special operations, its value is small; at the tactical level, it equals one; at the operational level its approximate value is 2–4. The obtained statistical results do not contradict the military science and art ideas of planning and conduct of hostilities. Using the contest success function for battle (combat, operation) is advisable at the stage of preparation for the battle to substantiate the required forces and means for completing the tasks.