Scenario-cognitive modeling of complex systems based on event-driven identification of factor dynamics

This paper is devoted to methodological problems of increasing the effectiveness of scenario analysis and modeling of development processes in socio-economic systems. The corresponding results can be used in management decision support systems for proactive evaluation of their effectiveness. Several limitations of the traditional approach to scenario-cognitive modeling are considered; due to these limitations, the resulting scenario neglects key events directly affecting the assessment of the current situation and decision-making. A novel approach is proposed to identify and analyze the dynamics of factor values when studying the model as well as to form additional scenario-event relationships between the factors in order to increase the adequacy of the model to the situation. A computational algorithm is developed to analyze the dynamics of factor values of the model. This algorithm is implemented and tested within the program-analytical complex of scenario modeling. Finally, an example of using the algorithm is given.