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JOURNALS // Problemy Upravleniya // Archive

Probl. Upr., 2004 Issue 4, Pages 62–70 (Mi pu537)

Problemno oriented management system

Reflexive models of decision-making

D. A. Novikova, A. G. Chkhartishvilib

a Institute of Control Sciences, Russian Academy of Sciences
b M. V. Lomonosov Moscow State University

Abstract: The paper reviews the game-theoretical models of reflexive decision-making. Most of equilibrium concepts used in the game theory require game parameters to be common knowledge, i.e. that all agents know it, all agents know that all agents know it, and so on ad infinitum. In the general case, the agents have different beliefs about beliefs of other agents; thus an infinite (reflexive) belief structure appears. For this case, the concept of informational equilibrium looks rational. The paper formulates the reflexive model and the conditions of the reflexive equilibrium existence and stability. It offers a solution to the reflexivity depth problem for some cases and adduces some examples.

UDC: 519



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