Methods for predicting the service life of fiber waveguides

A description is given of methods for predicting the mechanical reliability of fiber waveguides made of quartz glass. These methods are based on a model of growth of defects on the surface of a fiber subjected to a load in the presence of moisture. Estimates are obtained of the service life of fiber waveguides prepared by the technology developed at two USSR Academy of Sciences institutes: Institute of Chemistry and Institute of General Physics. The predictions are made as a function of the working load and of the load applied during test winding. It is shown that a 25-year service life can be guaranteed when the ratio of the winding to the working load is 7, whereas for the ratio of 3 the same service life can be expected for kilometer waveguides with a probability of 99%.