On the symmetrized chi-square tests in autoregression with outliers in data
M. V. Boldin Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Mechanics and Mathematics
Abstract:
A linear stationary model
$\mathrm{AR}(p)$ with unknown expectation,
coefficients, and the distribution function of innovations
$G(x)$ is
considered. Autoregression observations contain gross errors (outliers,
contaminations). The distribution of contaminations
$\Pi$ is unknown, their
intensity is
$\gamma n^{-1/2}$ with unknown
$\gamma$, and
$n$ is the number
of observations. The main problem here (among others) is to test the
hypothesis on the normality of innovations $\boldsymbol H_{\Phi}\colon G
(x)\in \{\Phi(x/\theta),\,\theta>0\}$, where
$\Phi(x)$ is the distribution
function of the normal law
$\boldsymbol N(0,1)$. In this setting, the
previously constructed tests for autoregression with zero expectation do not
apply. As an alternative, we propose special symmetrized chi-square type
tests. Under the hypothesis and
$\gamma=0$, their asymptotic distribution is
free. We study the asymptotic power under local alternatives in the form of
the mixture $G(x)=A_{n,\Phi}(x):=(1-n^{-1/2})\Phi(x/\theta_0)+n^{-1/2}H(x)$,
where
$H(x)$ is a distribution function, and
$\theta_0^2$ is the unknown
variance of the innovations under
$\boldsymbol H_{\Phi}$. The asymptotic
qualitative robustness of the tests is established in terms of equicontinuity
of the family of limit powers (as functions of
$\gamma$,
$\Pi,$ and
$H(x)$)
relative to
$\gamma$ at the point
$\gamma=0$.
Keywords:
autoregression, outliers, residuals, empirical distribution function, chi-square test, local alternatives, robustness. Received: 16.02.2022
Accepted: 29.03.2022
DOI:
10.4213/tvp5559