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JOURNALS // Upravlenie Bol'shimi Sistemami // Archive

UBS, 2020 Issue 84, Pages 177–197 (Mi ubs1038)

Reliability and Diagnostics of Control Systems and Tools

Evaluation of the weibull distribution parameters for small volume of the sample in the problems of optimization of planning repair works on engineering networks

A. Krygin

V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow

Abstract: In the previously developed economic and statistical methodology for assessing the state of the engineering network section and information support when deciding to extend its service life, there are serious requirements for the initial data. One of the conditions for the correct operation of the methodology is the presence of complete statistics of damage and repairs carried out, starting from the moment the site is commissioned. However, for many sites such statistics are available only for the last few years. In order to expand the scope for cases of incomplete damage statistics, a separate study was carried out to estimate the Weibull distribution parameters with a small sample size using the example of heat supply network sections. This work is devoted to the results of the study. Three classes of sites were identified: with fairly complete damage statistics, with a small amount of statistics, and without statistics. For each class, an algorithm was proposed for estimating the necessary parameters for the Weibull distribution, which were further used in the methodology for estimating the state of a site, and a criterion was determined by which a site could be assigned to a particular class.

Keywords: estimation of Weibull distribution parameters with a small sample size, estimation of averaged values of parameters, optimization of repairs of heating network sections.

UDC: 338.49
BBK: 31.38

Received: April 17, 2019
Published: July 31, 2019

DOI: 10.25728/ubs.2020.84.9



© Steklov Math. Inst. of RAS, 2024