Scenario technologies in managing the development of the Russian Federation Arctic Zone oil and gas complex

The paper deals with the scenario study of the problems of increasing the effectiveness of managing the Russian North socio-economic development in the context of sanctions pressure. As a research tool, a developed mathematical model of scenario simulation and forecasting is used. The main advantage of scenario approach is the possibility of foreseeing the most important events in the process of large-scale systems development managing, as well as evaluating management decisions efficiency and identifying new opportunities to achieve the set of management goals in conditions of incomplete information and uncertainty. Based on signed digraphs mathematical model a scenario research technology has been developed, which is the basis of a designed simulation modeling software complex. A basic multifactorial scenario model for managing the development of natural resources of the Russian Federation Arctic zone has been designed. The results of the study of the developed scenarios in particular, showed that in difficult economic situation caused by external sanctions pressure, the most effective is a management strategy based on an expansion of the scale of financial and other types of support for oil and gas projects implemented in the Russian North by various economic entities.