Analysis of the methodology of scenario planning and national security management

The article is devoted to the development of a methodology for scenario planning and management of ensuring the national security of the Russian Federation. The results of developing a conceptual framework for scenario research are presented, on the basis of which a general scheme for the procedure for generating scenarios has been developed. The expert description of the development model of the processes under consideration is based on the concept of an expert-significant partition of the extended phase space, as well as expert-significant events that occur in the sequence specified in the ordering system within the framework of the basic model. As a result of the study of this model, scenarios for the behavior of the control object or the development of the security situation are formed. A multi-level model of the life cycle of planning and managing security measures has been developed, providing the possibility of proactive verification of the results of the implementation of key stages of the management cycle, which allows us to move from passive accounting of accomplished events to proactive management. The results obtained can serve as the basis for automating scenario research, as well as analytical predictive support for the processes of preparing and making management decisions in the field of ensuring the security of complex organizational systems.