Scenario control and security of a complex system

As a development of the methodology of scenario research of complex systems, the models and methods for constructing a safe scenario of their operation are considered. The main elements of the scenario methodology and scenario management are considered. The main concepts and terminology of scenario security of complex systems are formalized. The main objectives of security research in various strata of the socio-economic system, including technological, organizational, production, economic and social, are defined. The stages of scenario research of the security of complex systems are indicated. Formal characteristics of scenarios applied in the practice of scenario research and management are considered. Based on these characteristics, it is proposed to construct a number of criteria for scenario security of a complex system. A formal statement of the problems of scenario analysis of the constructed range of scenarios and synthesis of a safe scenario of functioning and development of the controlled object based on the "weighted graphs" behavior model is proposed. A method for synthesis of a safe scenario based on the solution of an inverse control problem consistent with the specified criteria of control efficiency is considered. The criterion for searching for a safe scenario is nonlinear. The proposed concepts, terminology, characteristics, and criteria for scenario-based research on the security of complex systems can be used in various strata of the socio-economic system. Further research directions are indicated.