Scenario-based research of complex systems: analysis of group management methods

Main components of scenario-based research methodology are described: the scenario system, the system of scenario analysis, the system of scenario synthesis, basics of scenario calculus. Verbal and formal definitions of a scenario and of its formation stages are given. Application is considered of complex systems' scenario-based research methodology to the analysis of effectiveness of group management in the socio-economic system of the Amur region of Russian Federation.