Efficiency analysis of the programs of exposure of individuals predisposed to colorectal cancer based on imitational modeling

We apply mathematical modeling to assert the efficiency of different screening programs for individuals predisposed to colorectal cancer. The criteria of program efficiency are potential years of life lost and the number of examinations within a fixed period of time. A stochastic individual-based model was built describing the dynamics of population size, polyp occurence and growth within the particular individuals, mass examination implementation and polyp detection. The computational algorithm and the modeling program were developed. Computer simulation results reflecting different mass examination scenarios are presented. Recommendations are presented concerning the mass examination programm choice depending on the polyp detection method, the examination frequency and the average life length.