Application of bayesian approach to update events’ probabilities in automated system of aviation accidents forecasting and prevention

In the automated system of aviation accidents forecasting and prevention, which is being developed for Volga–Dnepr air carrier, the method of probabilistic analysis of safety with construction of “event trees” is used. Probabilities of initiating events at the lowest level of a tree are estimated using the data from various sources. In the course of company's operation additional information arrives to the system in the form of audit reports, cases investigations reports, and other obligatory and voluntary messages. These reports testify occurrence of danger factors influencing events' probabilities. We suggest the method of using this information for probabilities update on the basis of Bayes formula.