Quantitative analysis of the effectiveness and risks of information systems implementation

Quantitative evaluation of the effectiveness and risks of implementa-tion of information systems (IS) is essential to start the project. It is necessary to choose a reasonable performance indicators and the method of determining their dependence on the variables affecting the project. The Monte Carlo method is proposed for the analysis, and net present value of the cash flows of the project is selected as a criterion of effectiveness. We discuss external factors affecting the effectiveness, give recommendations how to determine their proba-bilities and present the project assessment model. We also propose a method to calculate the positive cash flow which occurs due to the reduction of time of works supported by IS. Impact of deviations from project schedule is taken into account. The practical case of the project analysis for the implementation of knowledge management IS is presented.