Assessment and selection of an optimal model for forecasting the end of the frost period

One of the first steps in developing a mathematical forecasting model is to define the criteria for evaluating and selecting the optimal model from among several candidates. Since modelling objectives can vary, the choice of evaluation method must align with the specific goal of the study. The accuracy and usefulness of the final result depend heavily on how the model is assessed. In this study, we developed a procedure for evaluating and selecting a model to forecast the end of the frost period in the spring–summer season.