The development of algoritm of selection of the prior venture IT-projects

The article considers the decision-making procedure concerning the financing innovative IT-projects by the venture investor. The algorithm of selection of IT-projects for decision-makers with technology expert estimation and Monte Carlo method is presented. The stages of the selection procedure are described in detail. The absence of the unified approach to evaluating the effectiveness of innovation is emphasized and universal classification criteria for estimation of IT-projects are offered. This classification takes into account the various industry-specific projects, which provide a more detailed analysis of the incoming information on IT-projects. Many of the most important indicators for the evaluation of the projects are determined using expert method. Taking into account the degree of co-ordination of the opinions of the experts and using Kendall–Smith concordance coefficient, the methods of processing expert estimations, allowing not only to rank the projects according to their attractiveness, but also to determine the quantitative assessment of their attractiveness, are used. For determination of the vector of coefficients of relative importance of the projects an iteration algorithm, based on the assumption of the actualization of the axioms of Neumann–Morgenstern utility theory, is worked out and introduced. For the account of vagueness and risk in the process of quantitative analysis and making decision on financing of IT-projects, it is offered to use Monte Carlo method for quantitative assessment of the risks of investments in projects. Due to the absence of accurate data on the further development of the selected projects simulation by Monte Carlo method allows, under certain conditions, to find a range of values of the resulting index for a given range of values of the original data.