Mathematical model for forecasting of flood effects

The mathematical model of the system dynamics to forecast the effects of the floods affecting the amount of damage is developed. The graph of cause-effect relations existing between the modeled characteristics of floods is designed. A mathematical model to forecast the characteristics of floods is described with the system of nonlinear differential equations of the first order. Numerical solution of the system of equations is obtained by using the Runge–Kutta method of the $4^{\mathrm{th}}$ order. Computational experiments, allowing for different time intervals to determine the modeled characteristics, are made. The comparison of the characteristics calculated by the model, with their real values confirms the adequacy of the mathematical model. The results can be used in the development of the information systems of forecasting the flood effects for operating and dispatching personnel of the EMERCOM.