Mathematical forecasting values of indicators characterizing safety of functioning road transport system

This article considers a complex of mathematical models based on the systemdynamic approach that allows to analyze and forecast the main traffic indicators defined in the Russian Government regulatory document. There was developed a graph of cause-and-effect relationships of the road system functioning and, on its basis, a system of nonlinear differential equations of system dynamics. The analysis of the results of the numerical solution of the constructed system showed the adequacy of the proposed set of models and the possibility of using them for predicting the values of safety indicators of the road network for various values of external factors.