Development of a model for predicting the safety characteristics of aviation transport systems over a time interval of several years

The task is being solved to make a forecast of significant safety characteristics of aviation transport systems (ATS). A combined mathematical model based on the system dynamics apparatus and using regression analysis and graph theory has been developed. During the development of the model, significant ATS safety characteristics were selected, as well as frequent disturbances affecting the safety of operation were identified. A matrix of cause-and-effect relationships has been constructed, and a graph of relationships between model variables and perturbations has been developed. A system of nonlinear differential equations has been formed, the solution of which makes it possible to determine the magnitude of the main safety characteristics of the ATS operation under various environmental disturbances. The identification of regression coefficients and environmental equations is based on the analysis of data from open sources. The solution of a system of nonlinear differential equations is performed by the Runge–Kutta method of the 4th order of accuracy. The developed model is aimed at being used as part of decision support systems that model and predict the relevant characteristics of ATS systems that affect the safety of their operation. To demonstrate the capabilities of the model, computational experiments were conducted in which changes in the characteristics of the system over time were analyzed. To assess the accuracy of mathematical modeling of ATS security characteristics, model calculations were compared with data provided by security experts. The results obtained during the experiments confirm the adequacy of the developed model, which can be useful to managers and employees of flight safety management systems, as it will allow them to predict possible security threats at various time intervals and make adequate management decisions.