To the question of the use of Markov model degradation in the diagnosis technical systems

The question of the coincidence of estimates of reliability parameters with their true values is considered, when planning maintenance and determining estimates of the reliability parameters of operated systems. The main attention is paid to the problem of constructing models that simulate the behavior of systems during operation in the future. Establishing such a connection consists in using the Bayesian approach and estimating the parameters of the reliability model, covering systems with partially known reliability parameters, which are specified by a priori distributions. To describe the behavior of the technical system, Markov models of reliability were used and the mean time of the possible failure was determined from the refined data on the failure rates of the component components of the system on the basis of the developed regular models.