Abstract:
We study the problem of identifying the coefficients based on known statistical data for a SEIR-like epidemiological model. The proposed approach to solving this problem is based on the iteratively regularized Gauss–Newton method. We also use one modification of this method, which is able to find quasi-solutions of nonlinear operator equations. We take into account various types of errors in epidemiological statistics. The possibility of predicting the spread of epidemics, as well as determining indicators of its contagion and danger, is discussed.