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JOURNALS // Vestnik Moskovskogo Universiteta. Seriya 1. Matematika. Mekhanika // Archive

Vestnik Moskov. Univ. Ser. 1. Mat. Mekh., 2023 Number 5, Pages 10–16 (Mi vmumm4562)

Mathematics

Symmetry verification of innovation distributions in autoregressive schemes

M. V. Boldin, A. R. Shabakaeva

Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Mechanics and Mathematics

Abstract: We consider a stationary linear $AR(p)$ model with zero mean. The autoregression parameters as well as the distribution function (d.f.) $G(x)$ of innovations are unknown. We test symmetry of innovations with respect to zero in two situations. In the first case the observations are a sample from a stationary solution of $AR(p)$. We estimate parameters, find residuals. Based on them we construct a kind of emperical d.f. and the omega-square type test statistic. Its asymptotic d.f. under the hypothesis and the local alternatives are found. In the second situation the observations subject to gross errors (outliers). For testing the symmetry of innovations again we construct the Pearson's type statistic and find its asymptotic d.f. under the hypothesis and the local alternatives. We establish the asymptotic robustness of Pearson's test as well.

Key words: autoregression, outliers, empirical distribution function, residuals, Pearson's chi-square test, estimators, local alternatives, omega-square test, robustness.

UDC: 519.24

Received: 23.09.2022

DOI: 10.55959/MSU0579-9368-1-64-5-2


 English version:
Moscow University Mathematics Bulletin, Moscow University Mеchanics Bulletin, 2023, 78:5, 216–222

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© Steklov Math. Inst. of RAS, 2025