Scientific articles
Estimation of total income with discounting for probabilistic models of population dynamics
A. A. Bazulkina Vladimir State University
Abstract:
Models of homogeneous and structured populations given by differential equations depending on random parameters are considered. A population is called homogeneous if it consists of only one animal or plant species, and structured if it contains
$n\geqslant 2$ different species or age classes. We assume that in the absence of exploitation, the dynamics of the population is given by the system of differential equations
\begin{equation*}
\dot{x}=g(x), \quad x\in\mathbb R^{n}_{+}\doteq\left\{x\in \mathbb R^{n}: x^1\geqslant 0 ,\ldots,x^n\geqslant 0\right\}.
\end{equation*}
At times
$\tau_{k}=kd,$ where
$d>0,$ $k=1,2,\ldots,$ random shares of the resource $\omega_{k}=(\omega_{k }^1,\ldots,\omega_{k}^n)\!\in\Omega\subseteq [0,1]^n$ are extracted from this population.
If
$\omega_{k}^i$ is greater than some value
$u_{k}^i\in[0,1),$ then the collection of the resource of the
$i$-th type stops at the moment
$\tau_{k}$ and the share of the extracted resource turns out to be equal to
$\ell_{k}^i\doteq\min(\omega_{k}^i,u_{k}^i).$ Let
$C^{i}\geqslant 0$ be the cost of the resource of the
$i$-th type,
$i=1,\ldots,n,$ $X_k^{i}=x^{i}(kd-0)$ the quantity of the
$i$-th type of resource at the time
$\tau_k$ before collection; then the amount of income at the moment equals $Z_k\doteq\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^n{C^{i}X_k^{i}\ell_{k}^i}.$
The properties of the characteristic of the total income, which is defined as the sum of the series of income values at the time
$\tau_k,$ taking into account the discounting factor
$\alpha>0$ are investigated:
\begin{equation*}
H_{\alpha}\bigl(\overline{\ell},x_{0}\bigr)=\sum_{k=1}^\infty{Z_k e^{-\alpha{k}}}=\sum_{k=1}^{\infty}e^{-\alpha{k}}
\sum_{i=1}^{n}C^{i}X_k^{i}\ell_{k}^i,
\end{equation*}
where $\overline{\ell}\doteq(\ell_{1},\ldots,\ell_{k},\ldots),$
$x_0$ is the initial population size. The value of
$\alpha$ indicates that the value of the income received later decreases.
Estimates of the total income, taking into account discounting, made with probability one are obtained.
Keywords:
structured population, total income estimate.
UDC:
517.929
MSC: 37Н35,
39А50,
49N25,
93C15 Received: 15.05.2023
Accepted: 12.09.2023
DOI:
10.20310/2686-9667-2023-28-143-217-226