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JOURNALS // Russian Universities Reports. Mathematics // Archive

Russian Universities Reports. Mathematics, 2023 Volume 28, Issue 143, Pages 217–226 (Mi vtamu291)

Scientific articles

Estimation of total income with discounting for probabilistic models of population dynamics

A. A. Bazulkina

Vladimir State University

Abstract: Models of homogeneous and structured populations given by differential equations depending on random parameters are considered. A population is called homogeneous if it consists of only one animal or plant species, and structured if it contains $n\geqslant 2$ different species or age classes. We assume that in the absence of exploitation, the dynamics of the population is given by the system of differential equations
\begin{equation*} \dot{x}=g(x), \quad x\in\mathbb R^{n}_{+}\doteq\left\{x\in \mathbb R^{n}: x^1\geqslant 0 ,\ldots,x^n\geqslant 0\right\}. \end{equation*}
At times $\tau_{k}=kd,$ where $d>0,$ $k=1,2,\ldots,$ random shares of the resource $\omega_{k}=(\omega_{k }^1,\ldots,\omega_{k}^n)\!\in\Omega\subseteq [0,1]^n$ are extracted from this population. If $\omega_{k}^i$ is greater than some value $u_{k}^i\in[0,1),$ then the collection of the resource of the $i$-th type stops at the moment $\tau_{k}$ and the share of the extracted resource turns out to be equal to $\ell_{k}^i\doteq\min(\omega_{k}^i,u_{k}^i).$ Let $C^{i}\geqslant 0$ be the cost of the resource of the $i$-th type, $i=1,\ldots,n,$ $X_k^{i}=x^{i}(kd-0)$ the quantity of the $i$-th type of resource at the time $\tau_k$ before collection; then the amount of income at the moment equals $Z_k\doteq\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^n{C^{i}X_k^{i}\ell_{k}^i}.$ The properties of the characteristic of the total income, which is defined as the sum of the series of income values at the time $\tau_k,$ taking into account the discounting factor $\alpha>0$ are investigated:
\begin{equation*} H_{\alpha}\bigl(\overline{\ell},x_{0}\bigr)=\sum_{k=1}^\infty{Z_k e^{-\alpha{k}}}=\sum_{k=1}^{\infty}e^{-\alpha{k}} \sum_{i=1}^{n}C^{i}X_k^{i}\ell_{k}^i, \end{equation*}
where $\overline{\ell}\doteq(\ell_{1},\ldots,\ell_{k},\ldots),$ $x_0$ is the initial population size. The value of $\alpha$ indicates that the value of the income received later decreases. Estimates of the total income, taking into account discounting, made with probability one are obtained.

Keywords: structured population, total income estimate.

UDC: 517.929

MSC: 37Н35, 39А50, 49N25, 93C15

Received: 15.05.2023
Accepted: 12.09.2023

DOI: 10.20310/2686-9667-2023-28-143-217-226



© Steklov Math. Inst. of RAS, 2024