Procedure for constructing soft models of complex systems by time series

The problem of creating models of complex systems for assessing their state is considered. The analysis of approaches to construction of diagnostic models is given and their features are marked. For a complex system with a hierarchical structure, a procedure for constructing the models to assess its state using a scalar time series is proposed. In this case, each hierarchical level is described by a lumped-parameter differential equation. The procedure is based on the concept of soft modelling. The efficiency of the proposed procedure is demonstrated by the example of constructing a model for assessing the state of a complex heart rhythm regulation system.