Abstract:
The mesoscale convective system (MCS) cinematic and evolution routinely derived from real-time radar reflectivity Z data are used to develop 3 step short-range forecasting technique. The first forecasting step is estimation of MCS translation velocity. It is proposed that translation can be estimated by robust interactive procedure, identifying and tracking of ¸¸conservative meso-$\beta$ fragments", or by automatic clustering algorithms. The second step is nowcasting when entire Z field is extrapolated by translation to forecast time $\sim$0,5–1 hours. The third step is forecast verification and MCS diagnostic when prognostic and real-time images of Z are coupled to one composite image, denominated as life-cycle display (LCD). The construction of LCD is adapted to use both in forecast verification in terms of FAR, POD and CSI and to display 3 type conventionally outlined MCS areas where: 1) ongoing convection occur; 2) dissipating convection/stratiform transformation and 3) precipitation was recently ceased. As poor extrapolation forecasts associated, mainly, with growth and decay of storms in the forecast period, life-cycle composite images provide valuable information about of developing, dissipating areas and areas prohibited to new convective development.