Screening of patients with cerebral aneurysms: mathematical analysis and economic rationale

Subarachnoid hemorrhages caused by the rupture of brain aneurysms pose a serious health threat, accompanied by high levels of disability and mortality. In Russia, there is no screening for the presence of aneurysms in patients with risk factors, despite the proven effectiveness of preventive surgical treatment for undiagnosed clinical aneurysms. This study aims to demonstrate the clinical and economic feasibility of population screening, including first-degree relatives, using a mathematical model for a virtual population in Russia. The modeling was conducted using a discrete Markov chain algorithm based on a population of 145 million people. Magnetic resonance angiography 3DTOF was chosen as the screening method. As a result of the calculations, the number of aneurysms in the population, cases of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage, treatment costs and outcomes, as well as the risk of disability were determined. The results of the study highlight the need for implementing screening to reduce the consequences of aneurysms and improve public health.