Vaccination Impact Through the Lens of Mechanistic SEIRS Modeling: Past Insights and Future Directions for Infection Hospitalization Rates and Rt Analysis

During the early COVID-19 pandemic, mitigation measures sharply reduced circulation of seasonal influenza. The early and moderately severe 2022–2023 US influenza season may reflect reduced intervention use and lower population immunity after this lull. Using an age-stratified influenza transmission model with vaccine-derived protection against infection and severe outcomes, we estimated that vaccination prevented 70,000 (95